Risk Assessment and Maps | MAG

Maps

Zoom in for more detail and infrastructure. Select your area for an estimate of $ at risk.

Probability and Loss 

Annualized estimates for comparison between hazards.

Area-Wide Hazards

For hazards with broad locational data.

Wildland Fire

Fire is a natural part of every ecosystem, but decades of wildland fire suppression during a historically cooler time period resulted in a buildup of fuels (vegetation) and development in wildfire-prone areas. With the 2010's megadrought, increased outdoor recreation, development pressure particularly along the Wasatch back (Wasatch and Summit counties), and climate change, the likelihood of damaging fire is increasing for people, buildings, and ecosystems. Though we have more assets in high-risk areas, the technology for early warning and fire-hardened homes has also advanced. This combined with better planning and enforcement can improve the protection of assets already in place.

Probability: Likely to occur every year 

Severity: Critical, will affect multiple properties and could cause injuries or fatalities.

Mitigation strategies include limiting development in the Wildland Urban Interface, fuel management, prescribed burns, hardening buildings against fire with appropriate shingles, vent covers to prevent embers from entering the home, and maintaining an emergency water supply and appropriate water pressures, using appropriate plantings around homes, and much more. See wildfirerisk.org or FEMA's Strategies handbook for a more complete list.

Flood and Dams

Floods occur when water overflows onto land that is usually dry. In the MAG region, this is usually the result of heavy rainstorm events or in the springtime as winter snow melts in the mountains. Drought and fire de-vegetate land, which reduces the ability of soils to absorb water.
Dam failure, though infrequent, can cause quick-onset flooding. The largest dams in the area have been retrofitted by the Bureau of Reclamation to withstand foreseeable earthquakes and are regularly inspected.

Probability: Floods are likely to occur every year, dam failure is possible (between 1-10% likelihood)

Severity: Critical, affects multiple properties and sometimes causes injuries or fatalities

Mitigation Strategies include adopting a sensitive lands ordinance to limit development in or near floodplains, maintaining and clearing streambeds, expanding culverts, discouraging impervious surfaces that drain to waterways, regularly inspecting and retrofitting dams, and many more. Speak with your Floodplain Manager or see FEMA's Strategies handbook for a more complete list.

Earth Movement

Earthquakes occur when tectonic plates suddenly release tension built up over centuries of strain. The Wasatch Fault has a strong earthquake about every 300 years and we are "due" for another. While some buildings rest directly on a fault, the way a building is constructed and the stability of soils underneath is a large factor in its resilience. Pre-1990s brick homes are usually unreinforced and very brittle, posing a great risk to occupants during a quake. Liquefaction occurs when loose soils such as those at the mouth of a canyon or near a lake begin to act like a liquid when subject to prolonged shaking. Landslides, debris flow, and other earth movement occur near steep slopes or in areas where the forces of gravity outweigh the ability of soil to stick together, such as on slopes where fire has removed vegetation. 

Probability: It is more likely than not that a critically damaging earthquake will occur in the next 50 years. (>90% likelihood an M5+ earthquake will occur by 2053) 

Severity: Catastrophic 

Mitigation Strategies include restricting building on known fault lines or steep slopes, requiring geotechnical studies for buildings on problem soils, retrofitting critical infrastructure, educating homeowners on retrofitting options and securing items to the wall, requiring large/reinforced foundations or piers in liquefaction areas, and many more. See Utah Earthquake Safety or FEMA's Strategies Handbook for a more complete list.

Probability and Loss Estimates, Annualized

AREA-WIDE HAZARDS

Many hazards are difficult to map at a county level due to their unpredictability or widespread effects. Identifying one portion of the region being more prone to these hazards than another is difficult due to the lack of specific spatial data and their widespread nature. Each individual jurisdiction has the opportunity to address these hazards on a local level. For more information, see the State's Hazard Mitigation Plan.

Air Pollution
Harmful emissions from vehicles, homes, industry and wildfire have serious health, climate, and environmental consequences. 


Probability: Likely
Severity: Limited

While air quality is gradually improving, current pollution reduces the lifespan of the average Utahan by 2 years. Vehicle emissions account for about half of air pollution. The Wasatch Front's geography makes inversions especially severe while the entire West suffers during wildfire season.

Vulnerability
Children, the elderly, those with health conditions, and fetuses are at greater risk for hospitalization on bad air days. Utah County must submit plans to the EPA to comply with federal air quality regulations. Although Wasatch County's air quality is not poor enough to trigger any federal regulations it is also concerned about pollution and has been monitoring it since 2016.

Development Effects
Improvements in technology largely offset population increase

Strategies

Adopt emissions reduction goals
Promote teleworking
Support research
Accelerate Quality Growth efforts
Encourage electric vehicles and infrastructure
Consider market-based approaches

clean air toolkitair quality/changing climate roadmap

Algal Blooms
Happen when naturally-occurring cyanobacteria in the water multiply quickly in warm conditions, producing cyanotoxins that can pose serious health risks.


Probability: Likely
Severity: Limited

While blooms can happen naturally in pristine mountain lakes and impaired urban waterways, certain conditions (i.e. usually warmer waters and high concentrations of phosphorus and nitrogen) can increase the likelihood of blooms. As global temperatures increase, scientists have noticed blooms at an increasing frequency. Nitrogen and phosphorus are common pollutants that can come from sewage treatment plants, erosion and urban and agricultural runoff.

Vulnerability
Lake-adjacent cities and businesses that depend on water recreation are adversely affected by algal blooms, as is the perception of water safety at large. Children and pets are more likely to ingest water.

Development Effects
As communities near waterways develop and recreation demand increases with the growing population, more people could be affected by algal blooms. It is essential to educate those unfamiliar with the phenomenon.

Strategies
Proper land management and investment in new technologies to treat wastewater can reduce the likelihood of blooms.
 -Reduce the amount of fertilizer used on lawns-Use phosphorus-free fertilizer and detergent when possible
-Fix leaking septic systems
-Keep yard debris such as leaves or grass clippings from washing into storm drains
-Pick up pet waste

Avalanche
Avalanches are a rapid down-slope movement of snow, ice, and debris. Snow avalanches are a significant mountain hazard in Utah, especially as outdoor tourism expands.


Probability: Likely
Severity: Limited

Vulnerability
Avalanches are considered a "voluntary risk" as injuries come to those who engage in recreational activities that could be avoided. 

Development Effects
Homes are generally prohibited in avalanche-prone areas through hillside ordinances, but growing resort communities might experience road closures due to avalanches. Wintertime recreators, especially those skiing and snowmobiling, are especially at risk.

Strategies
The highest risk for avalanches is between Jan - April as a result of snow accumulation and unstable snowpacks. Because avalanches are largely a voluntary hazard, education is imperative for reducing deaths. Another strategy is to prevent people from building in avalanche paths.

Climate Change
The global climate is changing at a much greater rate than any time in at least the last 650,000 years. Increasing evidence shows that humans are the primary influences behind this rate of change. However, the current and future changes in Utah are nuanced.


Probability: High
Severity: Uncertain for Utah, Slow-Onset, increasingly Likely as time goes on

Changes in climate affect the composition of the Earth’s atmosphere, leading to warming temperatures, changing precipitation rates, and new weather patterns. Greenhouse gasses like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide trap the sun’s radiation causing the earth’s surface and air temperatures to rise.The global climate is changing at a much greater rate than any time in at least the last 650,000 years. Increasing evidence shows that humans are the primary influences behind this rate of change. However, the current and future changes in Utah are nuanced.

Vulnerability
In Utah, the effects of climate change are more of an exacerbation of existing hazards rather than additional hazards such as coastal flooding. Agriculture and winter recreation will likely be more impacted by possibly diminished snowpack.

Development Effects
The development considerations of other hazards also apply to climate change with the assumption that existing hazards are exacerbated.

Strategies
Many of the strategies for drought, fire, flood, etc. will also work to mitigate the effects of climate change. Indeed, the past shows we have had larger fires, deeper droughts, and stronger winter storms before regular records were kept. As for mitigating climate change itself, most strategies are the same as those for improving air quality, namely decreasing auto-dependence with more active transportation, transit, and infill development rather than sprawl, updating building codes for more energy-efficient homes, and diversifying energy sources to include more renewable energy.

Disease-Carrying Insects
Utah occasionally sees cases of West Nile Virus and Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, spread by mosquitos and ticks.


Probability: High
Severity: Limited
Biting insects have long been carriers of disease. Mosquitos carrying malaria and ticks with Lyme’s disease have plagued countries for centuries. Even though Utah’s cold winters effectively kill large numbers of infected vectors, there are still occurrences of West Nile Virus and Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever from time to time. It is inevitable that other vector-borne illnesses will develop or be introduced in the future.

Vulnerability
People outdoor in the summertime are more vulnerable to exposure. Children, those with preexisting conditions, and the elderly are more likely to suffer permanent damage if a disease is contracted.

Strategies
For diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and ticks, the best prevention is to use insect repellents with DEET or Permethrin and cover exposed skin. Those going into wooded areas should try to find and remove ticks as soon as possible, both on the body and on clothes, gear, and pets. Standing water serving as breeding grounds for mosquitos should be eliminated or water changed regularly. Early identification and treatment are critical.

Drought
Drought is nuanced, but the simplest definition is a period of abnormally low precipitation.


Probability: Likely
Severity: Critical for agriculture, Limited for urban areas

Drought is a normal recurrent feature of climate, although many people in Utah erroneously consider it a rare and random event. It occurs in virtually all climatic zones but has greater effects in semi-arid zones (such as Utah) where consistently lower levels of precipitation decrease the margin of tolerance for lengthy events. Droughts are slow-onset hazards, which result from long periods of below-normal precipitation. Drought is a temporary aberration and differs from aridity since the latter is restricted to low-rainfall regions and is a permanent feature of climate.

Vulnerability
Drought is a condition that affects every corner of the MAG Region. In the developed world, droughts rarely threaten the availability of drinking water and do not put lives at risk. The same cannot be said for a person’s livelihood. As most of the agriculture in the region is irrigated, low water levels can have the greatest effect on rural communities where farming is still prominent. As growth occurs, water will continue to be converted to non-agricultural uses and therefore increase the remaining farmers’ vulnerability to drought. Each of the three counties has rural communities that could be affected. Droughts also stress wildlife and heighten the risk of wildfire.

Development Effects
As the state and region continue to be among the fastest growing in the U.S., drought will become a more pronounced threat. Existing water development projects such as reservoirs have been able to minimize the effects of drought on people and agriculture to this point. Both future and current water users will need to develop more sustainable practices to ensure that droughts will continue to have only moderate effects on the region. Climate change will certainly affect the region, but how remains to be seen. Additional heat may result in a milder winter with less snow and more rainfall in the spring. Still, it will take decades to determine the effects of climate change vs normal variation in weather patterns experienced in the last several centuries.

Strategies
Education has been shown to decrease per capita water consumption. Other strategies include "Localscapes" classes, "Flip the Strip" programs, universal metering, tiered water pricing, infrastructure audits, using reclaimed water on large fields, "Smart Controller" technology, and xeriscaping requirements. See a comprehensive list at water.utah.gov

Landslides
The downslope movement of rocks and/or soil. This can occur gradually or suddenly and is especially dangerous after fire or flood events.


Probability: Possible
Severity: Limited

Landslides are common natural hazards in Utah that often occur when the pull of gravity becomes greater than the cohesion of soil. Land movement can occur without warning and can result in destructive, costly outcomes. Various types of landslides in Utah are debris flows, slides, and rockfalls. In Utah, nearly all recent landslides have occurred as reactivations of pre-existing landslides.

Vulnerability
Steep slopes, mountainous terrain, rock types, and narrow, debris-choked canyons all contribute to our region’s susceptibility to landslide hazards. Wildfires can remove stabilizing vegetation and increase landslide risk. Many hillslopes are prone to landslides, particularly where development has occurred on existing landslides or where grading has modified a slope and reduced its stability. Therefore, historical landslides, prehistoric landslides, and steep slopes prone to landsliding must be thoroughly investigated before development activities, along with regional groundwater and landscape and other irrigation activities. Excessive irrigation can cause a neighbor near or on a slope to lose their home from a landslide by reducing the cohesion of the soil.

Development Effects
Much of the land on the bench in Utah County has already been developed. Hillside ordinances prevent development on steep slopes and geotechnical surveys are required before building in mapped problem areas. However, an improperly placed development can destabilize large areas by removing vegetation or over-watering the landscape.

Strategies
-Prohibit building on steep slopes
-Require thorough investigations and geotechnical studies for buildings in areas prone to landslides
-Prevent over-irrigating with the use of low-water xeriscape landscaping and/or smart irrigation controllers that adjust the amount of water applied to landscapes based on weather, plant/turf, and soil data

Pests and Invasive Species
Disasters occur when an insect population is much larger than average or insects from outside the region destabilize the ecosystem.


Probability: Likely
Severity: Limited

Utah, “The Beehive State”, has an agricultural industry valued at over a billion dollars. Insects such as the honeybee are generally a vital and positive part of the ecological system that makes agriculture possible. However, there are instances when an insect population much larger than average (such as Grasshopper/Cricket Infestations) or insects from outside the region (such as the invasive Emerald Ash Borer) destabilize the ecosystems where they occur. The Utah Department of Agriculture and Food monitors numerous pests, conducts pest control, and educates the public on identification and mitigation. Other insects are vectors, or travelling hosts, for diseases that can be contracted by humans.

Vulnerability
Some plants are more disease-prone than others. See the extension office for more information.

Development Effects
Regarding infestations of crop and range land, as land use shifts from agriculture to housing there will be less impact from infestations on the agricultural sector simply because there will be less agriculture. On the other hand, individual homeowners are less reliable when it comes to eliminating pests than large agricultural areas owned by informed persons that depend on pest removal for their livelihood. As development occurs there is more opportunity for weeds to take hold at the edges of disturbed land. Numbers of invasive species may also increase as Utah markets increase participation in global markets.

Strategies
mitigation strategies for pests range from poisoned bait and tilling to expose buried eggs to aerial spraying. The most effective method depends on each species’ behaviors and physiology, but certain methods like aerial insecticides can have adverse effects on non-target species such as bees. Contact your local extension office of the Utah Department of Agriculture and Food for site and species specific strategies.

Radon Gas
Radon is a colorless, odorless gas emitted in the natural breakdown of uranium in soil, rock, and water. It is the second leading cause of lung cancer behind smoking.


Probability: High
Severity: Limited

The level of Radon Gas in a home is as much a factor of home construction as it is geographic location. Radon travels from the soil into a home with lower pressure through openings in the foundation, be they cracks or gaps around pipes. 30% of homes tested in Utah exceed the EPA recommended action level of 4 pCi/L (picoCuries of radon per liter of air).

Vulnerability
Smokers have a higher risk of suffering from lung cancer when living in buildings with elevated radon levels. Radon occurs in old and new homes, though newer homes with moisture control generally have fewer crevices in the foundation or basement walls.

Development Effects
Development does not change the amount of radon in the soil, and radon in a building is a much a result of construction as it is location.

Strategies
There are efforts at the state level to provide low-cost radon test kids and increase Radon education. Sealing cracks in and wall or floor below grade prevents radon from entering a building. Mitigation systems cost a few thousand dollars and use suction to remove radon from beneath the foundation to outdoors.

Severe Weather
This includes Winter Weather, Blizzards, Cold, Dense Fog, Hail, Heavy Rain, Wind, Lightning, and Tornados


Probability: High
Severity: Limited

Utah, Summit, and Wasatch counties have an ideal site and situation for various severe weather events. Utah’s distance from the moderating effects of oceans results in hot summers and cold winters, unlike coastal areas that enjoy less extreme temperatures. In addition, the mountains facilitate precipitation which can be severe. The benefit of the mountains (other than providing necessary water) is that they prevent more severe tornadoes by breaking up the bodies of warm, moist air and cool, dry air necessary for formation.

Vulnerability
Numerous opportunities for recreation in the Wasatch and Uintah mountains place a greater number of people at risk during severe weather events, whether it be summer hikers struck by lightning or skiers caught in a snowstorm. The range of events and broad geographical coverage leave few unaffected.

Development Effects
In some instances, growth in certain areas such as mountainsides and canyons can decrease accessibility and increase other risks such as avalanches. Communities could develop education requirements as part of the development process. Other hazards such as lightning and hail are relatively independent of small-scale geography and are not exacerbated by development. Climate change could increase the amount of energy in the air, resulting in more powerful summer storms and their related hazards.

Strategies
For buildings: Adopt and enforce building codes related to roof snow loads and wind speeds. Require CO monitors.
For Infrastructure: Install redundancies in power lines, lightning protection and surge protection on critical infrastructure, and snow sheds over roadways.
Educate homeowners on protecting water pipes during cold weather and traveling safely.
Encourage participation in emergency alerts.

METHODS

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE

(Percentage of the community that can be affected): 

 Catastrophic: More than 50% 

Critical: 25 to 50%

Limited: 10 to 25%

Negligible: Less than 10%

PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE

(# events/years in record or HAZUS model for earthquakes)

Highly likely: Near 100% probability in next year

Likely: Between 10 and 100% probability in next year, or at least one chance in the next 10 years.

Possible: Between 1 and 10% probability in next year, or at least one chance in the next 100 years.

Unlikely: Less than 1% probability in next 100 years

SEVERITY PER INCIDENT

Catastrophic: Many lives, a great deal of property

Critical: Multiple lives lost and/or multiple properties affected

Limited: Some property loss and/or less than 3 lives lost

Negligible: Some property, no life lost